Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
